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Regional climate projections using a deep-learning-based model-ranking and downscaling framework: Application to European climate zones

Loganathan, Parthiban, Zea, Elias, Vinuesa, Ricardo, Otero, Evelyn

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate regional climate forecast calls for high-resolution downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs). This work presents a deep-learning-based multi-model evaluation and downscaling framework ranking 32 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using a Deep Learning-TOPSIS (DL-TOPSIS) mechanism and so refines outputs using advanced deep-learning models. Using nine performance criteria, five K\"oppen-Geiger climate zones -- Tropical, Arid, Temperate, Continental, and Polar -- are investigated over four seasons. While TaiESM1 and CMCC-CM2-SR5 show notable biases, ranking results show that NorESM2-LM, GISS-E2-1-G, and HadGEM3-GC31-LL outperform other models. Four models contribute to downscaling the top-ranked GCMs to 0.1$^{\circ}$ resolution: Vision Transformer (ViT), Geospatial Spatiotemporal Transformer with Attention and Imbalance-Aware Network (GeoSTANet), CNN-LSTM, and CNN-Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM). Effectively capturing temperature extremes (TXx, TNn), GeoSTANet achieves the highest accuracy (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 1.57$^{\circ}$C, Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) = 0.89, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) = 0.85, Correlation ($r$) = 0.92), so reducing RMSE by 20% over ConvLSTM. CNN-LSTM and ConvLSTM do well in Continental and Temperate zones; ViT finds fine-scale temperature fluctuations difficult. These results confirm that multi-criteria ranking improves GCM selection for regional climate studies and transformer-based downscaling exceeds conventional deep-learning methods. This framework offers a scalable method to enhance high-resolution climate projections, benefiting impact assessments and adaptation plans.


Validating Climate Models with Spherical Convolutional Wasserstein Distance

Garrett, Robert C., Harris, Trevor, Li, Bo, Wang, Zhuo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce the spherical convolutional historical simulations coincide with observational measurements, Wasserstein distance to more comprehensively we can compare each model's synthetic climate measure differences between climate models and distribution to the distribution of observational or quasiobservational reanalysis data. This new similarity measure accounts data products (Raäisaänen, 2007), to assess for spatial variability using convolutional their reconstructive skill. For complete spatial coverage we projections and quantifies local differences in the compare against reanalysis data, a blend of observations distribution of climate variables. We apply this and short-range weather forecasts through data assimilation method to evaluate the historical model outputs (Bengtsson et al., 2004). This has become one popular of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate model validation method (Flato et al., 2014).


Transferring climate change knowledge

Immorlano, Francesco, Eyring, Veronika, de Gouville, Thomas le Monnier, Accarino, Gabriele, Elia, Donatello, Aloisio, Giovanni, Gentine, Pierre

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation. Earth system model simulations, used to project climate change, inherently make approximations in their representation of small-scale physical processes, such as the formation of clouds, that are at the root of the uncertainties in global mean temperature's response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Several approaches have been developed to use historical observations to constrain future projections and reduce uncertainties in climate projections and climate feedbacks. Yet those methods cannot capture the non-linear complexity inherent in the climate system. Using a Transfer Learning approach, we show that Machine Learning, in particular Deep Neural Networks, can be used to optimally leverage and merge the knowledge gained from Earth system model simulations and historical observations to more accurately project global surface temperature fields in the 21st century. We reach a reduction in the 5-95% uncertainty range of global surface air temperature in 2081-2098 of up to 56% and 52% - across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways considered - with respect to state-of-the-art approaches and the Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, respectively. We give evidence that our novel method provides narrower multi-model uncertainty together with more accurate climate projections, urgently required for climate adaptation.


Climate Model Driven Seasonal Forecasting Approach with Deep Learning

Unal, Alper, Asan, Busra, Sezen, Ismail, Yesilkaynak, Bugra, Aydin, Yusuf, Ilicak, Mehmet, Unal, Gozde

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding seasonal climatic conditions is critical for better management of resources such as water, energy and agriculture. Recently, there has been a great interest in utilizing the power of artificial intelligence methods in climate studies. This paper presents a cutting-edge deep learning model (UNet++) trained by state-of-the-art global CMIP6 models to forecast global temperatures a month ahead using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. ERA5 dataset was also used for finetuning as well performance analysis in the validation dataset. Three different setups (CMIP6; CMIP6 + elevation; CMIP6 + elevation + ERA5 finetuning) were used with both UNet and UNet++ algorithms resulting in six different models. For each model 14 different sequential and non-sequential temporal settings were used. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) analysis revealed that UNet++ with CMIP6 with elevation and ERA5 finetuning model with "Year 3 Month 2" temporal case provided the best outcome with an MAE of 0.7. Regression analysis over the validation dataset between the ERA5 data values and the corresponding AI model predictions revealed slope and $R^2$ values close to 1 suggesting a very good agreement. The AI model predicts significantly better than the mean CMIP6 ensemble between 2016 and 2021. Both models predict the summer months more accurately than the winter months.


Contrastive Learning for Climate Model Bias Correction and Super-Resolution

Ballard, Tristan, Erinjippurath, Gopal

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate models often require post-processing in order to make accurate estimates of local climate risk. The most common post-processing applied is bias-correction and spatial resolution enhancement. However, the statistical methods typically used for this not only are incapable of capturing multivariate spatial correlation information but are also reliant on rich observational data often not available outside of developed countries, limiting their potential. Here we propose an alternative approach to this challenge based on a combination of image super resolution (SR) and contrastive learning generative adversarial networks (GANs). We benchmark performance against NASA's flagship post-processed CMIP6 climate model product, NEX-GDDP. We find that our model successfully reaches a spatial resolution double that of NASA's product while also achieving comparable or improved levels of bias correction in both daily precipitation and temperature. The resulting higher fidelity simulations of present and forward-looking climate can enable more local, accurate models of hazards like flooding, drought, and heatwaves.